15 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Kasımpaşa, 30% draw, 29% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kasımpaşa at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kasımpaşa4%Draw93%Trabzonspor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Andri Fannar Baldursson
10'
43'
⚽N. Savioloassist: M. Mimaroglu
🔁F. Diabateout: H. Hajradinovic
46'
⚽A. Benedyczak (pen)
55'
58'
🔁M. Mimarogluout: M. Salah
67'
🔁N. Savioloout: S. Lopes Cabral
67'
🔁A. Simsirout: M. Kabasakal
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
68'
🔁M. Ben Ouanesout: M. Rafferty
78'
🔁G. Yalcinout: A. Karapo
82'
84'
🔁R. Malinovskyiout: O. Tufan
🔁A. Benedyczakout: S. Alkas
90+2'

Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor

41%Possession59%
9Shots13
4On target5
3Corners10
1.7xG0.79

Goals against chances

Kasımpaşa1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Trabzonspor1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2C. WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 5J. JessenD
  • 51E. MendesM
  • 16A. F. BaldurssonM
  • 12M. Ben OuanesM
  • 34F. DiabateM
  • 50G. YalcinM
  • 9A. BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 30A. T. DagbasiD
  • 10H. HajradinovicM
  • 8A. MujdeM
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 66E. BozM
  • 7A. KolF
  • 11T. DiarraF
Coach: Shota Arveladze
Trabzonspor 4-2-3-1
  • 24A. OnanaG
  • 20W. PinaD
  • 27C. NwaiwuD
  • 15S. SavicD
  • 19M. EskihellacD
  • 8B. BouchouariM
  • 17R. MalinovskyiM
  • 70N. SavioloM
  • 58A. SimsirM
  • 77M. MimarogluM
  • 30P. OnuachuF
Substitutes
  • 1A. YildirimG
  • 25O. CevikkanG
  • 4S. AkaydinD
  • 39C. OzkacarD
  • 55S. Lopes CabralD
  • 11O. TufanM
  • 57M. KabasakalM
  • 10M. SalahF
  • 14U. NayirF
Coach: Fatih Tekke

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Kasımpaşa115511711+620
2Trabzonspor11812268+1825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor

  • 23 January 2026Trabzonspor 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 18 August 2025Kasımpaşa 0–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 5 May 2025Kasımpaşa 1–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 6 December 2024Trabzonspor 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 29 January 2024Trabzonspor 2–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig

The full Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor record →

Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor

Kasımpaşa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Benedyczak72

Trabzonspor

GoalsAssists

  • Mohamed Salah93
  • Franculino Djú42
  • E. Muçi36

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Kasımpaşa at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: N. Saviolo 43' for Trabzonspor, A. Benedyczak (penalty) 55' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.79.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.