Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kaizer Chiefs, 21% draw, 39% Mamelodi Sundowns — fair odds of 2.50, 4.76 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kaizer Chiefs at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. PetersenG
- 2T. MonyaneD
- 4Z. KwinikaD
- 42T. MoloisaneD
- 84Inacio MiguelD
- 13P. MmodiD
- 8S. NdlovuM
- 5S. MthethwaM
- 6L. MaboeM
- 11L. BaartmanF
- 70L. PhiliF
- 16R. LeanerG
- 18D. SolomonsD
- 23E. ChislettM
- 28M. VilakaziM
- 22A. Bitegeko
- 12N. NgcoboM
- 7M. ShabalalaM
- 47W. DubaM
- 17A. VelebayiM
- 30R. WilliamsG
- 25K. MudauD
- 20G. KekanaM
- 37K. JohannesD
- 6A. ModibaD
- 15B. J. AubaasM
- 29A. van WykM
- 21S. MkhuliseM
- 11M. AllendeM
- 17T. MatthewsM
- 12B. LeonF
- 31R. GossG
- 40M. MvalaD
- 5D. LungaD
- 33C. MailulaF
- 38S. Ndlovu
- 44G. KekanaM
- 18T. ZwaneM
- 35L. MothibaF
- 46B. MokoenaF
Form going into Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sekhukhune United12 August 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to TS Galaxy11 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns
- 6 May 2026Mamelodi Sundowns 1–1 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 27 August 2025Kaizer Chiefs 0–0 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 13 April 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 1–2 Kaizer ChiefsCup
- 1 March 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 2 November 2024Kaizer Chiefs 0–4 Mamelodi SundownsLeague Cup
- 28 September 2024Kaizer Chiefs 1–2 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Kaizer Chiefs and Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs
GoalsAssists
- M. Shabalala21
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- I. Rayners40
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kaizer Chiefs and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Kaizer Chiefs at 40% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: L. Phili 63' for Kaizer Chiefs, C. Mailula 75' for Mamelodi Sundowns. On expected goals it finished 0.73–0.63.