Jong Utrecht
vs
Roda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong Utrecht 1–0 Roda
The model makes it 36% Jong Utrecht, 32% draw, 32% Roda — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.09, Roda 1.00.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Jong Utrecht are bottom on 7 points from 9 games; Roda are 6th on 15 points from 9 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to VVV Venlo.
- Roda have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to VVV Venlo.
- Last 6 meetings: Roda 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 December 2025, ended Jong Utrecht 1–3 Roda.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Roda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jong Utrecht at 36% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Roda
Jong Utrecht
- L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
- W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
- W3-2away to NAC Breda11 September 2026
- D0-0FC Eindhoven7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jong AZ31 August 2026
Roda
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
- D1-1away to MVV6 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Roda
- 22 December 2025Jong Utrecht 1–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 1 November 2025Roda 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 24 January 2025Roda 3–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2024Jong Utrecht 1–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 26 January 2024Roda 0–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 1 September 2023Jong Utrecht 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Roda
Jong Utrecht
- E. C. Owen5 goals
Roda
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jong Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.39 for Roda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.00 for Roda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jong Utrecht rate 0.55 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Roda rate 0.44 and 1.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Roda, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Utrecht a 0% chance of the title and Roda 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jong Utrecht the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.00 for Roda. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.22 for Roda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jong Utrecht at home · Roda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 9, Roda 9.
Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jong Utrecht
- at FC Volendam23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Dordrecht2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at Den Bosch7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- vs Emmen20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
Roda
- at Almere City FC23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs Jong AZ30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs FC Volendam14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.