Internacional
vs
Botafogo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Internacional 1–0 Botafogo
The model makes it 43% Internacional, 28% draw, 29% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Internacional 1.48, Botafogo 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Internacional are 17th on 32 points from 30 games; Botafogo are 13th on 36 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gremio.
- Botafogo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Coritiba.
- Last 6 meetings: Botafogo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Botafogo 2–2 Internacional.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Internacional vs Botafogo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Internacional at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Internacional vs Botafogo
Internacional
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
- W2-1Corinthians7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
Botafogo
- D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
What these results say
- Internacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional.
- Botafogo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 32 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Internacional
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Botafogo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Botafogo
- 25 April 2026Botafogo 2–2 InternacionalSerie A
- 4 October 2025Internacional 2–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 11 May 2025Botafogo 4–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 5 December 2024Internacional 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 20 July 2024Botafogo 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 7 December 2023Internacional 3–1 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Botafogo
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
- Arthur Cabral71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Internacional carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.68 for Botafogo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Internacional and 1.11 for Botafogo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Internacional rate 0.77 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo rate 0.86 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botafogo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Internacional the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Internacional against 1.11 for Botafogo. Internacional's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.21 for Botafogo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Internacional at home · Botafogo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Internacional 30, Botafogo 30.
Internacional score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Botafogo have let in 6 there.
Botafogo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Internacional have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Internacional
- at Fluminense28 Oct · Serie Awin 19%
- vs Coritiba4 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- at Vasco da Gama18 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Vitoria22 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
Botafogo
- at Remo29 Oct · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Atletico Mineiro5 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- at Corinthians18 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Sao Paulo22 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.