Independiente Rivadavia
vs
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Gimnasia La Plata
The model makes it 45% Independiente Rivadavia, 27% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Independiente Rivadavia 1.91, Gimnasia La Plata 1.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Independiente Rivadavia wins, grey are draws, red are Gimnasia La Plata wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 45% here. Across 2555 settled matches, 1162 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
Independiente Rivadavia
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 15 March 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–3 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 July 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 January 2024Gimnasia La Plata 2–3 Independiente RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 29 March 2013Gimnasia La Plata 3–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 29 September 2012Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataPrimera Nacional
- 12 May 2012Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Gimnasia La PlataPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Gimnasia La Plata
Independiente Rivadavia
- A. Arce9 goals1 assists
- F. Sartori8 goals
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Rivadavia carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.6 for Gimnasia La Plata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 1.22 for Gimnasia La Plata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.94 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.75 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1202 correct results out of 2555 settled predictions (47%), with 242 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Independiente Rivadavia against 1.22 for Gimnasia La Plata. Independiente Rivadavia's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.25 for Gimnasia La Plata.