Atletico Tucuman
vs
Barracas Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Barracas Central
The model makes it 40% Atletico Tucuman, 31% draw, 29% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.36, Barracas Central 0.99.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atletico Tucuman wins, grey are draws, red are Barracas Central wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Tucuman at 40% here. Across 2555 settled matches, 1162 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central
Atletico Tucuman
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
- D0-0Instituto Cordoba22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto17 August 2026
Barracas Central
- D1-1away to Banfield14 September 2026
- D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
- L1-2Platense23 August 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central
- 16 March 2026Barracas Central 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 July 2024Barracas Central 0–2 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2024Barracas Central 2–0 Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 16 September 2023Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 19 March 2023Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 August 2022Atletico Tucuman 4–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Barracas Central
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.6 for Barracas Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.99 for Barracas Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.71 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barracas Central rate 0.71 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1202 correct results out of 2555 settled predictions (47%), with 242 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Tucuman the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 0.99 for Barracas Central. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.18 for Barracas Central.