Defensa Y Justicia
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San Lorenzo
The model makes it 41% Defensa Y Justicia, 30% draw, 29% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.38, San Lorenzo 0.96.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Defensa Y Justicia wins, grey are draws, red are San Lorenzo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 41% here. Across 2555 settled matches, 1162 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
San Lorenzo
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
- 16 March 2026San Lorenzo 2–5 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 September 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 April 2024San Lorenzo 0–2 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San LorenzoCopa Argentina
- 12 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 May 2023San Lorenzo 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
San Lorenzo
- R. Auzmendi6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Defensa Y Justicia carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.64 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.96 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.79 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.69 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Defensa Y Justicia a 8.6% chance of the title and San Lorenzo 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1202 correct results out of 2555 settled predictions (47%), with 242 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 0.96 for San Lorenzo. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.07 for San Lorenzo.