3 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Referee: Luis Lobo Medina, Argentina
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Defensa Y Justicia, 33% draw, 27% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Defensa Y Justicia at 40%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Defensa Y Justicia99%Draw1%San Lorenzo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jeremías Luccoassist: Maximiliano Porcel
11'
🔁Fernando Romanout: Demian Leonel Dominguez
24'
35'
Alexis·Cuello
⚽Héctor David Martínezassist: David Barbona
45'
⚽David Barbonaassist: Maximiliano Porcel
45+3'
45'
🔁Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosiniout: Facundo Gulli
45'
🔁Alexis·Cuelloout: Matías Reali
53'
🔁Nicolás Tripichioout: Gustavo Del Prete
Héctor David Martínez
59'
🔁Juan Manuel Gutiérrezout: Tiziano Perrotta
65'
🔁David Barbonaout: Domingo Blanco
65'
66'
🔁Mathías de Ritisout: Teo Rodríguez Pagano
68'
Gustavo Del Prete
Damián Fernández
68'
73'
🔁Guzman corujoout: Juan Álvarez
78'
Juan Álvarez
🔁Maximiliano Porcelout: Julian Lopez
84'
🔁Leandro Fernándezout: Agustin Hausch
84'

Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

51%Possession49%
18Shots19
4On target5
3Corners8

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia 4-1-4-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 28V. LozaD
  • 29D. FernándezD
  • 21D. MartínezD
  • 3F. RománD
  • 15S. SosaM
  • 24J. GutiérrezM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 22M. PorcelM
  • 26J. LuccoM
  • 9L. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 36L. AmadéG
  • 6E. BurdinD
  • 30D. DomínguezD
  • 17A. HauschF
  • 5J. LópezM
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 20N. PalavecinoM
  • 11Tiziano PerrotaF
Coach: J. Vaccari
San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2
  • 25J. DevecchiG
  • 2D. ArboledaD
  • 16G. CorujoD
  • 35A. CordobaD
  • 24N. TripichioM
  • 15M. CardilloM
  • 5I. PerruzziM
  • 6M. de RitisM
  • 38F. FaríasM
  • 9A. CuelloF
  • 29R. AuzmendiF
Substitutes
  • 62G. AlassiaM
  • 20F. AltamiranoG
  • 19E. AmorD
  • 10Facundo GulliM
  • 18D. HerazoF
  • 32E. HerreraD
  • 14A. LadstatterF
  • 42F. LorenzónD
  • 11M. RealiF
Coach: R. Insúa

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

Defensa Y Justicia

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
  • W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
  • W1-0Platense31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026

San Lorenzo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
  • W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
  • San Lorenzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Defensa Y Justicia158432114+728
9San Lorenzo15546914-519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

  • 16 March 2026San Lorenzo 2–5 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 September 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 April 2024San Lorenzo 0–2 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 24 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San LorenzoCopa Argentina
  • 12 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo record →

Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo

Defensa Y Justicia

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • R. Auzmendi72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Defensa Y Justicia beat San Lorenzo 3–0. The model had made a win for Defensa Y Justicia its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jeremías Lucco 11' for Defensa Y Justicia, Héctor David Martínez 45' for Defensa Y Justicia, David Barbona 45+3' for Defensa Y Justicia.

How the call on Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo has moved

First published on 19 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 33% / 27%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.

  1. Defensa Y Justicia win40%▼ −1
  2. Draw33%▲ +3
  3. San Lorenzo win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.