Boca Juniors
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Boca Juniors 2–1 Union Santa Fe
The model makes it 42% Boca Juniors, 28% draw, 30% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.77, Union Santa Fe 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Boca Juniors wins, grey are draws, red are Union Santa Fe wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 42% here. Across 2687 settled matches, 1231 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
- D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
Union Santa Fe
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
- M. Merentiel6 goals2 assists
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Boca Juniors carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.69 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.32 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boca Juniors rate 0.87 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.91 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boca Juniors a 6% chance of the title and Union Santa Fe 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1256 correct results out of 2687 settled predictions (47%), with 254 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 1.32 for Union Santa Fe. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.25 for Union Santa Fe.