3 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires
Referee: S. Martinez
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Boca Juniors, 27% draw, 23% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Boca Juniors at 50%: of 1,458 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.2% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boca Juniors99%Draw1%Union Santa Fe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Facundo Ezequiel Herrera
7'
Leandro Paredes
17'
21'
Joaquin Mosqueira
⚽Lautaro Di Lolloassist: Leandro Paredes
22'
39'
Cristian Tarragona
45'
Victor Malcorra
45'
🔁Joaquin Mosqueiraout: Lucas Menossi
🔁Miguel Merentielout: Enner Valencia
60'
🔁Sebastián Villaout: Carlos Palacios
61'
🔁Alan Velascoout: Leonel Flores
61'
64'
🔁Brahian Cuelloout: Marcelo Estigarriba
66'
Lucas Ayala
72'
Mauro Luna Diale
73'
🔁Julián Palaciosout: Erik Ramirez
73'
🔁Lucas Ayalaout: Bruno Pittón
⚽Leonel Flores
83'
🔁Santiago Ascacibarout: Ángel Romero
84'
🔁Leandro Paredesout: Williams Alarcón
86'
⚽Leonel Floresassist: Enner Valencia
90+2'

Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

69%Possession31%
25Shots4
7On target1
2Corners1

Line-ups

Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
  • 12L. BreyG
  • 17L. LozanoD
  • 2L. Di LolloD
  • 42F. HerreraD
  • 3L. BlancoD
  • 18M. DelgadoM
  • 5L. ParedesM
  • 25S. AscacíbarM
  • 20A. VelascoM
  • 22S. VillaM
  • 16M. MerentielF
Substitutes
  • 27M. BraidaM
  • 15W. AlarcónM
  • 32A. CostaD
  • 4N. FigalD
  • 19L. FloresF
  • 30J. GarcíaG
  • 9M. GiménezF
  • 24D. GorositoD
  • 7C. PalaciosM
Coach: R. Arruabarrena
Union Santa Fe 4-1-4-1
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 15J. PintadoD
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 26J. LudueñaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 10V. MalcorraM
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 25C. TarragonaF
Substitutes
  • 27T. RubioD
  • 43E. RamírezF
  • 12B. PittónD
  • 34Mateo PeresuttiM
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 5L. MenossiM
  • 33I. IslaD
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

Boca Juniors

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
  • W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
  • W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026

Union Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
  • W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
  • W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Boca Juniors158612314+930
10Union Santa Fe155372224-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

  • 16 March 2026Union Santa Fe 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 July 2025Boca Juniors 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 January 2025Union Santa Fe 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 21 November 2024Boca Juniors 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 March 2024Union Santa Fe 1–0 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe record →

Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel92

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona152

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Boca Juniors beat Union Santa Fe 3–0. The model had made a win for Boca Juniors its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lautaro Di Lollo 22' for Boca Juniors, Leonel Flores 83' for Boca Juniors, Leonel Flores 90+2' for Boca Juniors.

How the call on Boca Juniors v Union Santa Fe has moved

First published on 20 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Boca Juniors's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Boca Juniors win50%▲ +8
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Union Santa Fe win23%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.