23 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Estudiantes La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sarmiento Junin, 20% draw, 45% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.86, 5.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Estudiantes La Plata at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin99%Draw1%Estudiantes La Plata0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Lucas Alario
⚽M. Martinezassist: J. Mavilla
18'
Julian Contrera
26'
40'
Joaquin Pereyra
46'
🔁E. Mezaout: E. Mancuso
46'
🔁Perez Fabricioout: E. Cetre
Lucas Suárez
54'
🔁J. Contreraout: U. Gimenez
58'
65'
🔁J. Pereyraout: J. Sosa
65'
🔁B. Aguirreout: J. Burgos
🔁J. Herreraout: Diego Churin
68'
🔁J. Mavillaout: G. Gonzalez
68'
75'
🔁A. Castroout: G. Carrillo
⚽G. Gonzalezassist: J. Marabel
80'
82'
Joaquín Correa
🔁J. Marabelout: G. Arturia
82'
85'
•Joaquín Tobio Burgos
86'
⚽Joaquín Correa (pen)
90+3'
Eros Mancuso

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes La Plata

24%Possession76%
11Shots19
6On target6
3Corners5
1.57xG1.64

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin2 from 1.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estudiantes La Plata0 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuarezD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 24J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 33G. DiazD
  • 29T. SantamariaD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 17A. NadruzM
  • 5M. GarciaM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Estudiantes La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 35V. PieraniD
  • 24T. PalaciosD
  • 36J. PereyraD
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 21L. PioviM
  • 29Perez FabricioM
  • 32J. CorreaM
  • 28B. AguirreM
  • 27L. AlarioF
Substitutes
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 26R. Funes MoriD
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 4S. NunezD
  • 7J. SosaM
  • 8Gabriel NevesM
  • 11F. FariasM
  • 31B. RodriguezM
Coach: Alexander Medina

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes La Plata

Sarmiento Junin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman8 August 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
  • L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026

Estudiantes La Plata

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Gimnasia La Plata15 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportivo Riestra8 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors5 August 2026
  • W3-0Defensa Y Justicia1 August 2026
  • L0-2Independiente26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sarmiento Junin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121
12Estudiantes La Plata164482122-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes La Plata

  • 20 February 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 13 June 2024Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2024Sarmiento Junin 3–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 23 October 2023Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 February 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 15 June 2022Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes La Plata record →

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Estudiantes La Plata

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Estudiantes La Plata

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarmiento Junin beat Estudiantes La Plata 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Estudiantes La Plata at 45% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 35%. The goals: M. Martinez 18' for Sarmiento Junin, G. Gonzalez 80' for Sarmiento Junin. On expected goals it finished 1.57–1.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.