Talleres Cordoba
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Talleres Cordoba 1–0 Independiente
The model makes it 35% Talleres Cordoba, 31% draw, 34% Independiente — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Talleres Cordoba 1.11, Independiente 1.09.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Talleres Cordoba and Independiente are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Talleres Cordoba at 35% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
- L1-3away to Instituto Cordoba20 September 2026
- W2-1Union Santa Fe12 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo5 September 2026
- D0-0Central Cordoba de Santiago30 August 2026
- D2-2Rosario Central25 August 2026
Independiente
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
What these results say
- Talleres Cordoba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Talleres Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 8 |
| 6 | Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente
- 21 March 2026Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 July 2025Independiente 1–2 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2025Talleres Cordoba 2–3 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 May 2024Independiente 1–3 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 April 2024Independiente 2–2 Talleres CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 26 November 2023Talleres Cordoba 3–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Talleres Cordoba and Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Talleres Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.68 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 1.09 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Talleres Cordoba rate 0.76 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.85 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Talleres Cordoba a 0% chance of the title and Independiente 4.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Talleres Cordoba the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba against 1.09 for Independiente. Talleres Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.19 for Independiente.