IF Elfsborg
vs
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 66% IF Elfsborg, 23% draw, 11% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.79, Degerfors IF 0.56.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IF Elfsborg
- W3-0Vasteras SK FK14 August 2026
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF26 July 2026
- L1-3Sirius19 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gais12 July 2026
Degerfors IF
- W2-1away to Malmo FF9 August 2026
- L0-2away to IFK Goteborg2 August 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF25 July 2026
- L0-4away to Hammarby FF19 July 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IF Elfsborg | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 27 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF
- 17 April 2026Degerfors IF 0–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 27 September 2025IF Elfsborg 1–2 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 19 April 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 15 March 2025IF Elfsborg 4–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
- 3 March 2024IF Elfsborg 2–2 Degerfors IFSvenska Cupen
The two sides
IF Elfsborg carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.2 for Degerfors IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IF Elfsborg L-L-W-W-W; Degerfors IF L-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.56 for Degerfors IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Elfsborg rate 0.63 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Degerfors IF rate 0.38 and 1.50.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 36% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 2-0 (15%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 0.56 for Degerfors IF. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.5 for Degerfors IF.