Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Rosario Central 1-2 Gimnasia La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rosario Central, 25% draw, 34% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 26G. CantizanoM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 9M. RubenF
- 1A. WernerG
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 42E. VeronD
- 31F. NavarroM
- 88A. RodriguezM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 10F. CerviM
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13German ContiD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 5I. MiramonM
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 17L. JansonM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 27J. KadijevicG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 42S. VillarrealM
- 36L. LamellaD
- 16A. MaxM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 20J. PerezM
- 33P. AguiarM
Form going into Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata
Rosario Central
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
- W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Aldosivi2 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate29 July 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rosario Central | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 4 | Gimnasia La Plata | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 25 February 2026Gimnasia La Plata 1–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 September 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 March 2025Rosario Central 2–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 August 2024Gimnasia La Plata 0–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 February 2024Rosario Central 2–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 23 September 2023Gimnasia La Plata 2–1 Rosario CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Gimnasia La Plata
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assist
- A. Auzmendi7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.