Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Gangwon FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 66% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 16% draw, 18% Gangwon FC — fair odds of 1.52, 6.25 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.24, Gangwon FC 1.78.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%, under 2.5: 12%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
- W3-1FC Anyang2 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Seoul26 July 2026
- L1-2Incheon United21 July 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen18 July 2026
Gangwon FC
- L0-3Bucheon FC 19951 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC21 July 2026
- W2-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 July 2026
- D0-0away to FC Seoul12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 37 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello4 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong3 goals2 assists
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.52 for Gangwon FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ulsan Hyundai FC D-L-W-W-W; Gangwon FC D-W-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.24 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.78 for Gangwon FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 1.16 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gangwon FC rate 0.76 and 1.48.
That points to 88% for over two and a half goals and 80% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 2.4% chance of the title and Gangwon FC 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.24 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.78 for Gangwon FC. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.48 for Gangwon FC.