Union Berlin
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
The model makes it 17% Union Berlin, 23% draw, 60% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 5.88, 4.35 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Union Berlin 0.87, Borussia Dortmund 2.62.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Union Berlin are 17th on 1 point from 4 games; Borussia Dortmund are top on 12 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Union Berlin have not won in their last 4, most recently a 0-7 defeat away to Bayern München.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 4 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to VfB Stuttgart.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 60% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
Borussia Dortmund
- W1-0away to VfB Stuttgart19 September 2026
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Berlin did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
- Borussia Dortmund won every one of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
- 24 January 2026Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 31 August 2025Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 22 February 2025Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 5 October 2024Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 2 March 2024Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 7 October 2023Borussia Dortmund 4–2 Union BerlinBundesliga
Leading scorers: Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin
- T. Skarke2 goals
Borussia Dortmund
- S. Guirassy2 goals2 assists
- F. Nmecha2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Union Berlin carry a model rating of 6.62 against 7.26 for Borussia Dortmund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Union Berlin and 2.62 for Borussia Dortmund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Berlin rate 0.81 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Dortmund rate 1.32 and 0.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Union Berlin against 2.62 for Borussia Dortmund. Union Berlin's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.59 for Borussia Dortmund.
Season stats
Union Berlin at home · Borussia Dortmund away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Union Berlin 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 1 there.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Union Berlin have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Union Berlin
- at FC Augsburg24 Oct · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs 1. FC Köln1 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- at SC Freiburg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 19%
- vs RB Leipzig21 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
Borussia Dortmund
- at Sabah FA20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · Bundesligawin 58%
- at Bayern München31 Oct · Bundesligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.