Werder Bremen
vs
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Werder Bremen 1–0 SC Paderborn 07
The model makes it 37% Werder Bremen, 31% draw, 32% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.26, SC Paderborn 07 1.07.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Werder Bremen are 8th on 7 points from 4 games; SC Paderborn 07 are 12th on 4 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-2 win at home to FC Augsburg.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 3-1 win at home to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Last 6 meetings: Werder Bremen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Werder Bremen at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Werder Bremen
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
SC Paderborn 07
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
What these results say
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Werder Bremen.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
- 8 August 2026Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- 30 October 2024SC Paderborn 07 0–1 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
- 19 October 2022SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
- 22 January 2022SC Paderborn 07 3–4 Werder Bremen2. Bundesliga
- 15 August 2021Werder Bremen 1–4 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
- 13 June 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–5 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07
Werder Bremen
- N. Füllkrug3 goals
- M. Grüll2 goals3 assists
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Werder Bremen carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.77 for SC Paderborn 07. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.07 for SC Paderborn 07. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Werder Bremen rate 0.82 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.66 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 1.07 for SC Paderborn 07. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/0.84 for SC Paderborn 07.
Season stats
Werder Bremen at home · SC Paderborn 07 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Werder Bremen 4, SC Paderborn 07 4.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Werder Bremen
- at FSV Mainz 0524 Oct · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- at VfB Stuttgart7 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Hamburger SV22 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
SC Paderborn 07
- vs Hamburger SV24 Oct · Bundesligawin 42%
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt7 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.