Hamburger SV
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
DFB Pokal prediction
Our model says: Hamburger SV 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
The model makes it 37% Hamburger SV, 26% draw, 37% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.53, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Hamburger SV are 12th on 6 points from 5 games; Eintracht Frankfurt are 14th on 5 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to RB Leipzig.
- Last 6 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SV.
Chance to go through
DFB Pokal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Hamburger SV37%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Eintracht Frankfurt38%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More DFB Pokal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hamburger SV at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hamburger SV had three goals or more.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
- Eintracht Frankfurt failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 May 2026Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 20 December 2025Hamburger SV 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 5 May 2018Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 12 December 2017Hamburger SV 1–2 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 18 March 2017Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 21 October 2016Hamburger SV 0–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib41
- J. Burkardt31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hamburger SV carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.82 for Eintracht Frankfurt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hamburger SV rate 0.77 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.13 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hamburger SV the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.22 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hamburger SV at home · Eintracht Frankfurt away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Hamburger SV 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 5.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Eintracht Frankfurt have let in 3 there.
Eintracht Frankfurt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hamburger SV
- at Eintracht Frankfurt1 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach6 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Bayern München28 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
Eintracht Frankfurt
- vs Hamburger SV1 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at SC Paderborn 077 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim21 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- at VfB Stuttgart28 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.