Velez Sarsfield
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza
The model makes it 43% Velez Sarsfield, 30% draw, 27% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Velez Sarsfield 1.42, Gimnasia Mendoza 0.88.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Velez Sarsfield are 4th on 20 points from 10 games; Gimnasia Mendoza are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Velez Sarsfield are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Tigre.
- Gimnasia Mendoza are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Riestra.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Velez Sarsfield
- W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
- D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
What these results say
- Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 3 April 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 3–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia Mendoza
Velez Sarsfield
- R. Martínez8 goals1 assist
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica12 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Velez Sarsfield carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.66 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.88 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velez Sarsfield rate 0.91 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.87 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Velez Sarsfield a 20.8% chance of the title and Gimnasia Mendoza 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velez Sarsfield the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield against 0.88 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Velez Sarsfield's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.27 for Gimnasia Mendoza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velez Sarsfield at home · Gimnasia Mendoza away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Velez Sarsfield 27, Gimnasia Mendoza 26.
Velez Sarsfield score most often in the 0–15 minute window (9 goals); Gimnasia Mendoza have let in 6 there.
Gimnasia Mendoza score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Velez Sarsfield have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Velez Sarsfield
- at Central Cordoba de Santiago25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- vs San Lorenzo1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 46%
- at Union Santa Fe8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
Gimnasia Mendoza
- vs Platense25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 47%
- at Lanus1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 27%
- vs Independiente Rivadavia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.