Gangwon FC
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 79% Gangwon FC, 13% draw, 8% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 3.02, Pohang Steelers 0.89.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gangwon FC
- L0-3Bucheon FC 19951 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC21 July 2026
- W2-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 July 2026
- D0-0away to FC Seoul12 July 2026
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 32 |
| 6 | Pohang Steelers | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal3 goals
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.06 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gangwon FC D-W-D-L-L; Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.02 goals for Gangwon FC and 0.89 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 and 2.10.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gangwon FC a 0.8% chance of the title and Pohang Steelers 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.02 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 0.89 for Pohang Steelers. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.1 for Pohang Steelers.