Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Jeju United FC, 25% draw, 35% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeju United FC at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-JunG
- 47Park Min-jaeD
- 41Kim Jae-WooD
- 3J. CelestineD
- 13Jeong WoonD
- 22E. CinariM
- 5ItaloM
- 20M. JangM
- 33Park Su-binM
- 94Emerson NeguebaF
- 9Matheus AiasF
- 7Park Chang-JunF
- 11Shin Sang-EunF
- 17Yu In-SooD
- 18Kim Shin-JinF
- 24Choi Byung-wookM
- 77S. YooM
- 81J. HeoG
- 88Jo In-jungD
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 16Lee Myung-JaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 4Cho Sung-GwonD
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 30Kim Bong-SooM
- 17G. LudwigsonM
- 7M. IshidaM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeM
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 2K. ParkD
- 8Victor BobsinM
- 9Diogo OliveiraF
- 14Kim Jun-BeomM
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
- 31Kim Min-Soo
- 41Park Byung-chanM
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 70Kim Hyeon-UgM
Form going into Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Jeju United FC
- L1-2Pohang Steelers25 August 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 August 2026
- W2-0FC Anyang15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Jeonbuk Motors8 August 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 August 2026
- W3-0Gangwon FC23 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Seoul15 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Anyang8 August 2026
What these results say
- Jeju United FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Daejeon Citizen had three goals or more.
- Daejeon Citizen won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen
Jeju United FC
- Matheus Aiás3 goals2 assists
- Italo Moreira3 goals1 assist
Daejeon Citizen
- Jeong Jae-Hee4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.