Jeju United FC
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 74% Jeju United FC, 13% draw, 13% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 1.35, 7.69 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: Jeju United FC 3.89, Daejeon Citizen 1.80.
Both teams to score: 82%. Over 2.5 goals: 92%, under 2.5: 8%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jeju United FC
- W2-0FC Anyang15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Jeonbuk Motors8 August 2026
- D3-3Incheon United2 August 2026
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gangwon FC21 July 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- L2-4away to FC Seoul15 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Anyang8 August 2026
- W2-0Gwangju FC2 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 34 |
| 9 | Daejeon Citizen | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Jeju United FC carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.44 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Jeju United FC D-W-D-W-W; Daejeon Citizen D-L-W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.89 goals for Jeju United FC and 1.80 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeju United FC rate 1.17 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.76 and 1.76.
That points to 92% for over two and a half goals and 82% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (6%), 4-1 (6%), 3-2 (5%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeju United FC a 0.1% chance of the title and Daejeon Citizen 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeju United FC the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.89 expected goals for Jeju United FC against 1.8 for Daejeon Citizen. Jeju United FC's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.76 for Daejeon Citizen.