Gremio
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Gremio 0–1 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 34% Gremio, 30% draw, 36% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.26, Cruzeiro 1.33.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Gremio and Cruzeiro are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Gremio are 17th on 29 points from 28 games; Cruzeiro are 6th on 45 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Gremio are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Palmeiras.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Vitoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruzeiro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Gremio 3–1 Cruzeiro.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Gremio
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
- 12 July 2026Gremio 3–1 CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2026Cruzeiro 2–0 GremioSerie A
- 5 November 2025Gremio 0–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 13 July 2025Cruzeiro 4–1 GremioSerie A
- 28 November 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 10 July 2024Gremio 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Cruzeiro
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assist
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.82 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Gremio and 1.33 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.75 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.01 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gremio against 1.33 for Cruzeiro. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.07 for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gremio at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Gremio 28, Cruzeiro 28.
Gremio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 7 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Gremio have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gremio
- at Coritiba25 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Atletico Paranaense28 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- at Flamengo4 Nov · Serie Awin 16%
Cruzeiro
- vs Remo25 Oct · Serie Awin 53%
- at Atletico Mineiro28 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Bahia4 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.