Fluminense
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 2–1 Santos
The model makes it 45% Fluminense, 27% draw, 28% Santos — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.83, Santos 1.18.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Fluminense are 4th on 48 points from 28 games; Santos are 8th on 41 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Corinthians.
- Santos are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Sao Paulo.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Santos 2–3 Fluminense.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Santos
Fluminense
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
Santos
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
- Santos won every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Santos
- 19 April 2026Santos 2–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 31 August 2025Santos 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 13 April 2025Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 29 November 2023Santos 0–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 29 July 2023Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 1 August 2022Santos 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Santos
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assist
- Hulk7 goals4 assists
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa11 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.77 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Fluminense and 1.18 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fluminense rate 1.00 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 0.98 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fluminense a 0.1% chance of the title and Santos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.18 for Santos. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.16 for Santos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Santos away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 28, Santos 28.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Santos have let in 12 there.
Santos score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Fluminense have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fluminense
- at Palmeiras20 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 21%
- at Chapecoense25 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
Santos
- vs Bahia25 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- vs Palmeiras28 Oct · Serie Awin 32%
- at RB Bragantino4 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.