Ajax vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Ajax, 22% draw, 18% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs Heerenveen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30Aaron BouwmanD
- 15Youri BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18Davy KlaassenM
- 6Youri RegeerM
- 23Steven BerghuisM
- 10Oscar GloukhM
- 68Abdellah OuazaneM
- 9Kasper DolbergF
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 8Julian BrandtM
- 24Jorthy MokioM
- 20Oliver Valaker EdvardsenF
- 99Tolu ArokodareF
- 26Maarten PaesG
- 22Joeri HeerkensG
- 4Ko ItakuraD
- 3Anton GaaeiD
- 22Bernt KlaverboerG
- 45Oliver BraudeD
- 4Sam KerstenD
- 3Maas WillemsenD
- 19Vasilios ZagaritisD
- 16Marcus LindayM
- 6Dirk Wanner ProperM
- 20Jacob TrenskowM
- 10Ringo MeerveldM
- 11Luca OyenM
- 9Dylan VenteF
- 7Maxence RiveraM
- 29Lanroy MachineF
- 28Hristiyan PetrovD
- 30Timo SchreuderG
- 44Andries NoppertG
- 23Darling BladiD
- 17Nikolai Soyset HoplandD
- 41Jimte ScholtenD
- 36Nolhan CourtensM
Form going into Ajax vs Heerenveen
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Shelbourne13 August 2026
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
- W3-1Shelbourne6 August 2026
- W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
- W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026
Heerenveen
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajax went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Heerenveen
- 17 May 2026Heerenveen 0–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 1 November 2025Ajax 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 19 January 2025Heerenveen 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 August 2024Ajax 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 11 February 2024Heerenveen 3–2 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and Heerenveen
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax and Heerenveen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajax at 60% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: B. Klaverboer (own goal) 7' for Ajax, A. Ouazane 33' for Ajax, J. Trenskow 45' for Heerenveen, M. Rivera 82' for Heerenveen. On expected goals it finished 1.74–1.33.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.