Ajax
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 58% Ajax, 23% draw, 19% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ajax 1.98, Heerenveen 1.07.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ajax
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
Heerenveen
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where they stand. Heerenveen has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Heerenveen
- 17 May 2026Heerenveen 0–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 1 November 2025Ajax 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 19 January 2025Heerenveen 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 August 2024Ajax 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 11 February 2024Heerenveen 3–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 5 November 2023Ajax 4–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
The two sides
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.67 for Heerenveen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ajax W; Heerenveen W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Ajax and 1.07 for Heerenveen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 0.89 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heerenveen rate 0.83 and 1.18.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Ajax against 1.07 for Heerenveen. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.18 for Heerenveen.