Widzew Łódź
vs
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 39% Widzew Łódź, 27% draw, 34% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.43, Lech Poznan 1.30.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Widzew Łódź
- L1-2Korona Kielce15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Jagiellonia9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wisla Plock31 July 2026
- D2-2Motor Lublin26 July 2026
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Widzew Łódź
- S. Bergier2 goals
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Widzew Łódź carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.7 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Widzew Łódź D-D-W-L; Lech Poznan D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.30 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Widzew Łódź rate 0.70 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 0.80 and 1.08.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lech Poznan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Widzew Łódź the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 1.3 for Lech Poznan. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.08 for Lech Poznan.