Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Widzew Łódź, 29% draw, 34% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Widzew Łódź at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. DragowskiG
- 91M. KrajewskiD
- 4M. ZyroD
- 3S. KapuadiD
- 40M. GarciaD
- 18L. SelahiM
- 77A. Baena PerezM
- 10F. AlvarezM
- 8E. KornvigM
- 7M. FornalczykM
- 28K. SwiderskiF
- 30V. IlicG
- 33J. KrzywanskiG
- 14R. VisusD
- 19D. MalesM
- 5G. PapanikolaouM
- 79S. BiukM
- 20A. KlukowskiM
- 99S. BergierF
- 1M. LisG
- 2J. PereiraD
- 27W. MonkaD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 10P. WalemarkM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 21P. RodriguezF
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 20R. GumnyD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 53K. DelikatM
- 24F. JagielloM
- 56W. Szymczak
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź
- D3-3away to Slask Wroclaw22 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
- W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
- W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
What these results say
- Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan
- 7 March 2026Widzew Łódź 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2025Lech Poznan 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 31 January 2025Lech Poznan 4–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 27 July 2024Widzew Łódź 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 19 May 2024Widzew Łódź 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 November 2023Lech Poznan 1–3 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh5 goals
- Pablo Rodríguez3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.