Valenciennes
vs
Amiens
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Valenciennes 1–2 Amiens
The model makes it 34% Valenciennes, 28% draw, 38% Amiens — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.51, Amiens 1.64.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Valenciennes are 15th on 8 points from 8 games; Amiens are 6th on 12 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Valenciennes have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Le Puy Foot.
- Amiens are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Quevilly.
- Last 5 meetings: Amiens 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 January 2024, ended Valenciennes 0–1 Amiens.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Valenciennes vs Amiens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amiens at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valenciennes vs Amiens
Valenciennes
- W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026
- L2-3away to La Roche VF19 September 2026
- L1-2Fleury 9112 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rouen3 September 2026
- D0-0Concarneau29 August 2026
Amiens
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
- W2-0Orleans19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Cannes10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Bastia5 September 2026
- W3-0Versailles29 August 2026
What these results say
- Valenciennes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valenciennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valenciennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amiens went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amiens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amiens kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valenciennes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | Amiens | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valenciennes vs Amiens
- 13 January 2024Valenciennes 0–1 AmiensLigue 2
- 23 September 2023Amiens 0–0 ValenciennesLigue 2
- 22 April 2023Amiens 0–2 ValenciennesLigue 2
- 26 December 2022Valenciennes 1–1 AmiensLigue 2
- 2 April 2022Valenciennes 0–2 AmiensLigue 2
The two sides
Valenciennes carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.25 for Amiens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Valenciennes and 1.64 for Amiens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valenciennes rate 0.48 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amiens rate 0.58 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valenciennes a 0.1% chance of the title and Amiens 6.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amiens the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Valenciennes against 1.64 for Amiens. Valenciennes's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.93 for Amiens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Valenciennes at home · Amiens away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Valenciennes 8, Amiens 8.
Valenciennes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Amiens have let in 0 there.
Amiens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Valenciennes have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Valenciennes
- at Cannes31 Oct · Ligue 3win 19%
- vs Orleans5 Nov · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Quevilly21 Nov · Ligue 3win 28%
- vs Villefranche5 Dec · Ligue 3win 49%
Amiens
- vs Thionville Lusitanos29 Oct · Ligue 3win 48%
- at Aubagne7 Nov · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Caen19 Nov · Ligue 3win 43%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 015 Dec · Ligue 3win 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.