GKS Katowice
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: GKS Katowice 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków
The model makes it 52% GKS Katowice, 24% draw, 24% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 2.51, Wieczysta Kraków 1.30.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are 9th on 12 points from 8 games; Wieczysta Kraków are 17th on 5 points from 8 games — Ekstraklasa.
- GKS Katowice have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Cracovia Krakow.
- Wieczysta Kraków have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Widzew Łódź.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Gornik Zabrze30 August 2026
- W5-0Wisla Plock23 August 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
- D1-1Zaglebie Lubin7 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow29 August 2026
- L2-3away to Cracovia Krakow21 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GKS Katowice | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków
GKS Katowice
- I. Shkurin6 goals1 assist
Wieczysta Kraków
- T. Christensen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.53 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.30 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 0.96 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.82 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GKS Katowice a 3.3% chance of the title and Wieczysta Kraków 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.30 for Wieczysta Kraków. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.58 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GKS Katowice at home · Wieczysta Kraków away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: GKS Katowice 8, Wieczysta Kraków 8.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 8 there.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); GKS Katowice have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GKS Katowice
- vs Pogon Szczecin17 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- at Korona Kielce24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Widzew Łódź31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Wieczysta Kraków
- vs Raków Częstochowa16 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Slask Wroclaw25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Jagiellonia31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Gornik Zabrze7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.