Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 42% Gimnasia Mendoza, 31% draw, 27% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 1.39, Newell's Old Boys 0.92.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia Mendoza
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
What these results say
- Newell's Old Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Newell's Old Boys
- 21 March 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica12 goals
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia Mendoza carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.59 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 0.92 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.87 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.78 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gimnasia Mendoza a 3.9% chance of the title and Newell's Old Boys 2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 0.92 for Newell's Old Boys. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.3 for Newell's Old Boys.