Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 2-0 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Gimnasia La Plata, 27% draw, 27% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia La Plata at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 15H. CastilloG
- 25A. SteimbachD
- 13G. ContiD
- 21E. MartínezD
- 24P. SilvaD
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 5I. MiramónM
- 17L. JansonM
- 8I. FernándezM
- 32M. TorresF
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 33P. AguiarM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 39F. Di BiasiM
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 23N. InsfránG
- 16A. MaxM
- 22M. MellusoD
- 7M. PanaroF
- 26F. TorresF
- 12T. AyalaG
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuárezD
- 8S. SalleM
- 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 19J. ContreraM
- 27J. MarabelF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 26Y. ArismendiM
- 10Jhon RenteríaM
- 77N. PasquiniD
- 7P. MagnínF
- 29T. SantamaríaD
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 6G. ArturiaD
- 9D. ChurínF
- 5M. GarcíaM
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Huracan15 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Barracas Central19 October 2026
- D1-1River Plate14 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento Junin
- 13 April 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 October 2025Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 October 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 May 2023Gimnasia La Plata 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 August 2022Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Sarmiento Junin
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia La Plata beat Sarmiento Junin 2–0. The model had made a win for Gimnasia La Plata its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ignacio Fernández 13' for Gimnasia La Plata, Franco Ramón Torres 74' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gimnasia La Plata these chances to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 5.8% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.8%.
For Sarmiento Junin the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 89.2% going in: 99.8% after a win, 93.9% after a draw, 82.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.2%, 7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.