23 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction & result

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Gustavo Tejera
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Flamengo 0-0 Estudiantes La Plata.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Flamengo, 22% draw, 12% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. First leg: Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 Flamengo (16 Oct) →

Estudiantes La Plata went through on penalties, after 0–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 66%: of 457 settled 65–100% forecasts, 67.6% came in (average 73.0%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
38'
🔁Joaquín Correaout: Tiago Palacios
49'
Leandro Gonzalez Pirez
50'
Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
54'
Santiago Núñez
64'
Lucas Piovi
🔁Jorge Carrascalout: Giorgian de Arrascaeta
64'
65'
Alexander Medina
77'
🔁Marcos Rojoout: Tiago Tomas Palacios
77'
🔁Joaquín Tobio Burgosout: Edwuin Cetre
77'
🔁Guido Carrilloout: Adolfo Gaich
🔁Erick Pulgarout: Bruno Henrique
82'
🔁Samuel Linoout: Gonzalo Plata
82'
🔁Alex Sandroout: Ayrton Lucas
82'
🔁Pedroout: Joaquín Freitas
88'
90'
🔁Alexis Castroout: José Sosa
⚽Giorgian de Arrascaeta (pen)
91'
92'
⚽José Sosa (pen)
⚽Jorginho (pen)
93'
95'
⚽Edwuin Cetre (pen)
⚽Lucas Paquetá (pen)
95'
97'
⚽Eros Nazareno Mancuso (pen)
⚽Léo Pereira (pen)
97'
98'
⚽Tiago Palacios (pen)
⚽Bruno Henrique (pen)
99'

Match stats — Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata

76%Possession24%
13Shots8
3On target3
6Corners5
0.94xG0.85

Goals against chances

Flamengo0 from 0.94 xGless than the chances were worth
Estudiantes La Plata0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RossiG
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 3Léo OrtizD
  • 4Léo PereiraD
  • 26Alex SandroD
  • 5E. PulgarM
  • 21JorginhoM
  • 15J. CarrascalM
  • 11Lucas PaquetáM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 9PedroF
Substitutes
  • 27Bruno HenriqueF
  • 30J. FreitasF
  • 19G. PlataF
  • 2G. VarelaD
  • 44VitãoD
  • 42AndrewG
  • 7Luiz AraújoF
  • 10G. de ArrascaetaM
  • 61João Victor CunhaD
Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Estudiantes La Plata 4-2-3-1
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 4S. NúñezD
  • 5M. RojoD
  • 14L. GonzálezD
  • 21Lucas Ezequiel PioviM
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 31B. GallegoM
  • 32J. CorreaM
  • 17J. BurgosM
  • 9G. CarrilloF
Substitutes
  • 27L. AlarioF
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 18E. CetréF
  • 19A. GaichF
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 52B. KociubinskiM
  • 20E. MezaD
  • 34M. MonsalveM
  • 10T. PalaciosM
Coach: Alexander Medina

Form going into Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata

Flamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores

  • D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata16 October 2026
  • D1-1Independiente del Valle18 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Independiente del Valle11 September 2026
  • W2-1Cruzeiro20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cruzeiro13 August 2026

Estudiantes La Plata

CONMEBOL Libertadores

  • D0-0Flamengo16 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Corinthians17 September 2026
  • D1-1Corinthians10 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Universidad Catolica19 August 2026
  • D1-1Universidad Catolica12 August 2026

What these results say

  • Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo had two goals or fewer.
  • Estudiantes La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Estudiantes La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Flamengo6510142+1216
2Estudiantes La Plata623165+19

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata

  • 16 October 2026Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 21 May 2026Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 30 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 26 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 19 September 2025Flamengo 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores

The full Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata record →

Leading scorers: Flamengo and Estudiantes La Plata

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Henrique52
  • G. de Arrascaeta41

Estudiantes La Plata

GoalsAssists

  • G. Carrillo30
  • T. Palacios30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Flamengo and Estudiantes La Plata drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 66% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. Sent off: Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez (Estudiantes La Plata) 50'. On expected goals it finished 0.94–0.85.

How the call on Flamengo v Estudiantes La Plata has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 55% / 27% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 66% / 22% / 12%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Flamengo win66%▲ +11
  2. Draw22%▼ −5
  3. Estudiantes La Plata win12%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.