Shamrock Rovers
vs
Sligo Rovers
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo Rovers
The model makes it 67% Shamrock Rovers, 21% draw, 12% Sligo Rovers — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 2.18, Sligo Rovers 0.62.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Shamrock Rovers are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shamrock Rovers are top on 65 points from 33 games; Sligo Rovers are bottom on 23 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bohemians.
- Sligo Rovers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Shelbourne.
- Last 6 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Sligo Rovers 1–2 Shamrock Rovers.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 67% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
- W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
- W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
Sligo Rovers
- L1-5away to Shelbourne9 October 2026
- L0-1St Patrick's Athletic19 September 2026
- L1-3Galway United14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bohemians28 August 2026
What these results say
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sligo Rovers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 65 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shamrock Rovers
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 89% today
From our Premier Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers
- 3 July 2026Sligo Rovers 1–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 22 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 1–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 13 March 2026Sligo Rovers 0–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 1 November 2025Shamrock Rovers 1–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
- 5 July 2025Sligo Rovers 2–2 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 5 May 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern106
- G. Burke83
- M. Noonan60
Sligo Rovers
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Shamrock Rovers carry a model rating of 6.43 against 5.92 for Sligo Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.62 for Sligo Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shamrock Rovers rate 0.64 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sligo Rovers rate 0.36 and 2.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shamrock Rovers a 88.7% chance of the title and Sligo Rovers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers against 0.62 for Sligo Rovers. Shamrock Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.34 for Sligo Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shamrock Rovers at home · Sligo Rovers away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Shamrock Rovers 33, Sligo Rovers 33.
Shamrock Rovers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Sligo Rovers have let in 8 there.
Sligo Rovers score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Shamrock Rovers have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Shamrock Rovers
- at Dundalk30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 46%
Sligo Rovers
- vs Derry City30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.