Celta de Vigo II
vs
Tenerife
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Tenerife
The model makes it 39% Celta de Vigo II, 28% draw, 33% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 1.54, Tenerife 1.33.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Celta de Vigo II are 17th on 8 points from 8 games; Tenerife are 12th on 11 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Celta de Vigo II are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Sporting Gijon.
- Tenerife have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cadiz.
- Last 2 meetings: Tenerife 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Celta de Vigo II 1–1 Tenerife.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife
Celta de Vigo II
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
Tenerife
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
- W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Real Sociedad II5 September 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon28 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tenerife had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celta de Vigo II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife
- 13 March 2026Celta de Vigo II 1–1 TenerifePrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 15 November 2025Tenerife 4–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife
Celta de Vigo II
- A. Marin3 goals1 assist
Tenerife
- Enric Gallego5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Celta de Vigo II carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.47 for Tenerife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.33 for Tenerife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta de Vigo II rate 0.72 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tenerife rate 0.66 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tenerife, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celta de Vigo II a 0% chance of the title and Tenerife 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.33 for Tenerife. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.4 for Tenerife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta de Vigo II at home · Tenerife away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Celta de Vigo II 8, Tenerife 7.
Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tenerife have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celta de Vigo II
- at Girona25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Cordoba1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Burgos8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
- at Albacete15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
Tenerife
- at Sabadell25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- vs FC Andorra1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Granada CF8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.