Getafe
vs
Celta Vigo
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 53% Getafe, 26% draw, 21% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Getafe 1.58, Celta Vigo 0.90.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Getafe
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Celta Vigo
- 1 February 2026Getafe 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Celta Vigo 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Getafe 1–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 November 2024Celta Vigo 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 11 February 2024Getafe 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 8 October 2023Celta Vigo 2–2 GetafeLa Liga
The two sides
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.72 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Getafe L-W; Celta Vigo D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Getafe and 0.90 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.74 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 0.88 and 1.13.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Getafe against 0.9 for Celta Vigo. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.74/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.13 for Celta Vigo.