Başakşehir
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 64% Başakşehir, 21% draw, 15% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.11, Kasımpaşa 0.92.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Başakşehir
No earlier matches on record this season.
Kasımpaşa
- D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.72 for Kasımpaşa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Başakşehir D-L; Kasımpaşa D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for Kasımpaşa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 1.15 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kasımpaşa rate 0.72 and 0.97.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Başakşehir against 0.92 for Kasımpaşa. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.97 for Kasımpaşa.