Fulham
vs
Crystal Palace
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 47% Fulham, 24% draw, 29% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.83, Crystal Palace 1.42.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- 7 August 2026Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- 1 January 2026Crystal Palace 1–1 FulhamPremier League
- 7 December 2025Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 29 March 2025Fulham 0–3 Crystal PalaceFA Cup
- 22 February 2025Fulham 0–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 9 November 2024Crystal Palace 0–2 FulhamPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fulham carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.92 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Fulham and 1.42 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fulham rate 0.94 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 1.18 and 1.03.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fulham the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fulham against 1.42 for Crystal Palace. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/1.03 for Crystal Palace.