Hull City
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 57% Hull City, 20% draw, 23% Aston Villa — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Hull City 2.37, Aston Villa 1.48.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Aston Villa
- 19 January 2019Aston Villa 2–2 Hull CityChampionship
- 6 August 2018Hull City 1–3 Aston VillaChampionship
- 31 March 2018Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaChampionship
- 5 August 2017Aston Villa 1–1 Hull CityChampionship
- 10 February 2015Hull City 2–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 31 August 2014Aston Villa 2–1 Hull CityPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hull City carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.94 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for Hull City and 1.48 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hull City rate 1.14 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.27 and 1.10.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Hull City against 1.48 for Aston Villa. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/1.1 for Aston Villa.