24 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Baltika vs Rubin Premier League prediction & result

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Baltika 1-1 Rubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Baltika, 15% draw, 11% Rubin — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Baltika at 74%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baltika1%Draw8%Rubin91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽J. Siweassist: I. Rozhkov
🔁A. Mouridout: I. Petrov
56'
🔁M. Petrovout: C. Offor
56'
67'
🔁V. Hodzaout: I. Saavedra
68'
🔁A. Arroyoout: R. Bezrukov
🔁B. Gilout: V. Pospelov
74'
🔁A. Mendelout: I. Belikov
74'
79'
A. Jukic
80'
🔁A. Jukicout: D. Maldonado
🔁N. Titkovout: K. Shiltsov
84'
84'
🔁I. Rozhkovout: M. Ignatiev
84'
🔁U. Iwuout: B. Jocic
⚽S. Varatynovassist: V. Pospelov
90'

Match stats — Baltika vs Rubin

55%Possession45%
16Shots10
4On target3
6Corners3

Line-ups

Baltika 5-4-1
  • 1E. LatyshonokG
  • 22M. BeveevD
  • 2S. VaratynovD
  • 24L. MouyokoloD
  • 21E. AndersonD
  • 4N. GassamaD
  • 73M. PetrovM
  • 8A. MendelM
  • 5A. MouridM
  • 11N. TitkovM
  • 91B. GilF
Substitutes
  • 44E. LyubakovG
  • 3I. KirschD
  • 64O. GasanbekovD
  • 68M. RyadnoD
  • 14S. KovacM
  • 7K. ShiltsovM
  • 42V. PospelovM
  • 57E. MamedovM
  • 10I. PetrovM
Coach: Andrey Talalaev
Rubin 5-4-1
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 5I. VujacicD
  • 13J. UrozovD
  • 51I. RozhkovD
  • 12A. ArroyoM
  • 22V. HodzaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 77A. JukicM
  • 43J. SiweF
Substitutes
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 86N. KoretsG
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 18M. IgnatievD
  • 4K. NizhegorodovD
  • 8B. JocicM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 11N. GripshiM
Coach: Franc Artiga

Form going into Baltika vs Rubin

Baltika

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026

Rubin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Baltika144551715+217
8Rubin144641418-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Rubin

  • 2 May 2026Baltika 0–1 RubinPremier League
  • 19 October 2025Rubin 0–3 BaltikaPremier League
  • 10 December 2023Baltika 0–1 RubinPremier League
  • 27 October 2023Rubin 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
  • 20 May 2023Baltika 0–1 RubinFirst League

Leading scorers: Baltika and Rubin

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil51

Rubin

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Baltika and Rubin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 74% and given a draw 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: J. Siwe 8' for Rubin, S. Varatynov 90' for Baltika.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.