ADO Den Haag
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: ADO Den Haag 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
The model makes it 46% ADO Den Haag, 25% draw, 29% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.85, Sparta Rotterdam 1.38.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. ADO Den Haag's rating is built from 9 Eredivisie matches and Sparta Rotterdam's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- ADO Den Haag are 16th on 6 points from 9 games; Sparta Rotterdam are 13th on 9 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- ADO Den Haag are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Willem II.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2025, ended ADO Den Haag 0–2 Sparta Rotterdam.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ADO Den Haag at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
What these results say
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Sparta Rotterdam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 12 July 2025ADO Den Haag 0–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 19 March 2025ADO Den Haag 0–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 13 July 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 ADO Den HaagFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2023ADO Den Haag 2–0 Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker
- 1 August 2023ADO Den Haag 1–2 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
- 4 December 2022ADO Den Haag 0–3 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.53 for Sparta Rotterdam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.38 for Sparta Rotterdam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.71 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.74 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sparta Rotterdam, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ADO Den Haag the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.38 for Sparta Rotterdam. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.41 for Sparta Rotterdam.
How the model reaches 46% for ADO Den Haag to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for ADO Den Haag to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, ADO Den Haag's ratings take away 16 points and Sparta Rotterdam's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- ADO Den Haag's ratings28%−16
- Sparta Rotterdam's ratings46%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADO Den Haag at home · Sparta Rotterdam away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: ADO Den Haag 9, Sparta Rotterdam 9.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Sparta Rotterdam have let in 3 there.
Sparta Rotterdam score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); ADO Den Haag have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
ADO Den Haag
- at Ajax22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Utrecht29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 37%
- vs Excelsior6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
Sparta Rotterdam
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- at Cambuur28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs NEC Nijmegen5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.