Excelsior
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Excelsior 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles
The model makes it 42% Excelsior, 24% draw, 34% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.92, GO Ahead Eagles 1.67.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Excelsior's rating is built from 43 Eredivisie matches and GO Ahead Eagles's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Excelsior are 10th on 11 points from 9 games; GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 14 points from 10 games — Eredivisie.
- Excelsior have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Heerenveen.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Telstar.
- Last 6 meetings: GO Ahead Eagles 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Excelsior 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Excelsior at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
- W3-2Telstar23 October 2026
- L1-4away to PEC Zwolle18 October 2026
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen20 September 2026
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 1 March 2026Excelsior 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 26 October 2025GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 30 March 2024GO Ahead Eagles 3–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 16 December 2023Excelsior 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 14 April 2023Excelsior 2–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 29 October 2022GO Ahead Eagles 3–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt82
- S. Sigurðarson41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Excelsior carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.66 for GO Ahead Eagles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Excelsior and 1.67 for GO Ahead Eagles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Excelsior rate 0.78 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.91 and 1.33.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GO Ahead Eagles, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.67 for GO Ahead Eagles. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.33 for GO Ahead Eagles.
How the model reaches 42% for Excelsior to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Excelsior to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Excelsior's ratings take away 13 points and GO Ahead Eagles's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Excelsior's ratings31%−13
- GO Ahead Eagles's ratings42%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Excelsior at home · GO Ahead Eagles away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ExcelsiorGO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior are 10th after 9 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 10th so far); GO Ahead Eagles are 8th after 10 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Excelsior 9, GO Ahead Eagles 10.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); GO Ahead Eagles have let in 4 there.
GO Ahead Eagles score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Excelsior have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Excelsior
- at Feyenoord21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Telstar28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 44%
- at ADO Den Haag6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 34%
GO Ahead Eagles
- vs Fortuna Sittard22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 46%
- at PSV Eindhoven28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Twente6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 30%
- at Heerenveen12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.