Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 Verl.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 27% draw, 27% Verl — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
Line-ups
- 22L. LordG
- 2S. van der SlootD
- 15T. OberdorfD
- 4L. BornscheinD
- 7E. WekesserD
- 6A. MüllerM
- 38E. ArdenM
- 8J. HendrixM
- 10P. FörsterM
- 34A. SlimaniF
- 24F. SchleusenerF
- 18M. GoncalvesM
- 23F. GerezgiherF
- 27J. PaulinaF
- 1L. RießG
- 28S. RischD
- 25M. ZimmermannD
- 14J. ConsbruchM
- 5Y. BouchamaM
- 16M. BengerM
- 1T. SchlieckG
- 34Janne BernerD
- 22N. KönigD
- 5Nick SeidelD
- 19N. KijewskiD
- 8D. WaidnerM
- 6J. EzeM
- 21M. ClausenM
- 30A. MešanovićM
- 20A. LeipoldM
- 25T. HeikeF
- 32F. PekruhlG
- 17Y. OttoM
- 14P. LehmannD
- 11M. KaubeM
- 29Emmanuel BambaM
- 2Raphael AraoyeD
- 23K. RabihićF
- 18F. WessigM
- 24D. MartinovićF
Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
Verl
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Verl | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl
- 11 October 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 Verl3. Liga
Leading scorers: Fortuna Düsseldorf and Verl
Fortuna Düsseldorf
GoalsAssists
- E. Hottmann10
Verl
GoalsAssists
- D. Waidner20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.