Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Fortuna Köln
The model makes it 47% Rot-Weiß Essen, 29% draw, 24% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.61, Fortuna Köln 0.84.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Fortuna Köln are 12th on 9 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Hansa Rostock.
- Fortuna Köln have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Havelse.
- Last 5 meetings: Fortuna Köln 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2025, ended Rot-Weiß Essen 5–0 Fortuna Köln.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
Rot-Weiß Essen
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Viktoria Köln5 September 2026
- D0-0away to SV Wehen29 August 2026
Fortuna Köln
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
- D0-0Fortuna Düsseldorf6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Verl29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
- 12 July 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 5–0 Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
- 16 March 2022Fortuna Koln 3–3 Rot-weiss EssenRegionalliga - West
- 29 August 2021Rot-weiss Essen 2–1 Fortuna KolnRegionalliga - West
- 7 March 2021Rot-weiss Essen 2–0 Fortuna KolnRegionalliga - West
- 10 October 2020Fortuna Koln 1–1 Rot-weiss EssenRegionalliga - West
The two sides
Rot-Weiß Essen carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.24 for Fortuna Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 0.84 for Fortuna Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Köln rate 0.47 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 13.7% chance of the title and Fortuna Köln 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 0.84 for Fortuna Köln. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.62 for Fortuna Köln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rot-Weiß Essen at home · Fortuna Köln away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Rot-Weiß Essen 7, Fortuna Köln 7.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rot-Weiß Essen
- at FC Ingolstadt 0417 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 51%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
Fortuna Köln
- vs Stuttgart II17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 45%
- at Preußen Münster24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.