Accrington Stanley
vs
Gillingham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Accrington Stanley 2–1 Gillingham
The model makes it 38% Accrington Stanley, 29% draw, 33% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 1.54, Gillingham 1.33.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are 19th on 7 points from 8 games; Gillingham are 8th on 12 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Accrington Stanley are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Swindon Town.
- Gillingham have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to York.
- Last 6 meetings: Gillingham 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Gillingham 2–0 Accrington Stanley.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Accrington Stanley at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham
Accrington Stanley
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
- W3-2Crawley Town5 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby1 September 2026
Gillingham
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
- W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Rochdale5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield1 September 2026
What these results say
- Accrington Stanley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gillingham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham
- 6 April 2026Gillingham 2–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 2 August 2025Accrington Stanley 1–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 15 March 2025Accrington Stanley 1–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 12 October 2024Gillingham 1–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 13 January 2024Accrington Stanley 1–2 GillinghamLeague Two
- 12 August 2023Gillingham 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Gillingham
Accrington Stanley
- C. Caton5 goals
Gillingham
- J. Brophy3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Accrington Stanley carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.05 for Gillingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.33 for Gillingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Accrington Stanley rate 0.45 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gillingham rate 0.47 and 2.35.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gillingham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Accrington Stanley a 0.1% chance of the title and Gillingham 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Accrington Stanley the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Accrington Stanley against 1.33 for Gillingham. Accrington Stanley's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.35 for Gillingham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Accrington Stanley at home · Gillingham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Accrington Stanley 8, Gillingham 8.
Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Gillingham have let in 1 there.
Gillingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Accrington Stanley have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Accrington Stanley
- at York20 Oct · League Twowin 23%
- at Rochdale24 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- vs Northampton31 Oct · League Twowin 36%
Gillingham
- vs Port Vale20 Oct · League Twowin 34%
- vs Grimsby24 Oct · League Twowin 30%
- at Shrewsbury31 Oct · League Twowin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.