HNK Hajduk Split
vs
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 71% HNK Hajduk Split, 15% draw, 14% FK Zalgiris Vilnius — fair odds of 1.41, 6.67 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 3.19, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.48.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Hajduk Split
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.21 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Hajduk Split L; FK Zalgiris Vilnius W-W-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.19 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.48 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.88 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Zalgiris Vilnius rate 0.53 and 1.92.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.19 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.48 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.92 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius.