30 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FC St. Pauli 1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% FC St. Pauli, 27% draw, 22% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC St. Pauli at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Pauli0%Draw6%1. FC Kaiserslautern94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽E. Yardimciassist: S. Sahin
David Nemeth
38'
Marcus Mathisen
41'
46'
🔁E. Yardimciout: T. Tazemeta
46'
⚽T. Tazemeta
🔁M. Kaarsout: C. Metcalfe
55'
🔁M. Mathisenout: A. Ceesay
55'
⚽A. Ceesayassist: T. Hara
56'
60'
Jacob Rasmussen
64'
Ibrahim Kanate
67'
Fabian Kunze
68'
🔁M. Ritterout: M. Sauer
68'
🔁I. Kanateout: M. Berisha
71'
🔁F. Kunzeout: L. Robinson
76'
Mario Sauer
🔁T. Haraout: Y. Niang
83'
84'
🔁M. Gyamfiout: K. Frees
Tomoya Ando
89'

Match stats — FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

59%Possession41%
21Shots11
7On target4
4Corners5
1.34xG0.71

Goals against chances

FC St. Pauli1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
1. FC Kaiserslautern2 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 8E. SmithM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 18T. HaraF
Substitutes
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 25A. DzwigalaD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 22S. KleinM
  • 24C. MetcalfeM
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 9A. CeesayF
  • 7Y. NiangF
Coach: Marcel Rapp
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4-3
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 14J. RasmussenD
  • 26P. JolyM
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 8S. SahinM
  • 22M. HaasM
  • 7M. RitterF
  • 17E. YardimciF
  • 11I. KanateF
Substitutes
  • 40E. KamgaG
  • 2S. AstaD
  • 3A. MurphyD
  • 5K. FreesD
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 37L. RobinsonM
  • 41D. SchrammM
  • 20M. BerishaF
  • 39T. TazemetaM
Coach: Torsten Lieberknecht

Form going into FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

FC St. Pauli

  • D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026

1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • D0-0Karlsruher SC15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC St. Pauli61418807
51. FC Kaiserslautern632164+211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • 20 January 2024FC St. Pauli 2–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 29 July 2023FC Kaiserslautern 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 12 February 2023FC St. Pauli 1–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 7 August 2022FC Kaiserslautern 2–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 17 March 2018FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 13 October 2017FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.