Eyüpspor
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 50% Eyüpspor, 26% draw, 24% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Eyüpspor 1.57, Alanyaspor 1.01.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Eyüpspor
No earlier matches on record this season.
Alanyaspor
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eyüpspor carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.51 for Alanyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Alanyaspor D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Eyüpspor and 1.01 for Alanyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eyüpspor rate 0.65 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alanyaspor rate 0.64 and 1.28.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eyüpspor the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Eyüpspor against 1.01 for Alanyaspor. Eyüpspor's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.28 for Alanyaspor.