30 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
Full time2 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% 1. FC Magdeburg, 29% draw, 31% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Magdeburg99%Draw1%Holstein Kiel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alexander Nollenberger
6'
20'
Jonas Therkelsen
Barış Atik
28'
29'
•Kasper Davidsen
Pierre Nadjombe
31'
44'
Kasper Davidsen
🔁P. Nadjombeout: T. Musel
46'
Anselmo Garcia McNulty
47'
54'
Jonas Meffert
Tobias Müller
64'
64'
🔁K. Davidsenout: G. de Regt
⚽M. Zukowskiassist: B. Atik
72'
🔁M. Kwartengout: M. Baars
75'
79'
🔁J. Tolkinout: N. Takahashi
⚽L. Hyrylainenassist: A. Nollenberger
81'
84'
Ivan Nekić
85'
🔁J. Meffertout: F. Alidou
🔁A. Nollenbergerout: E. Dzogovic
86'
🔁B. Atikout: R. Simic
90+2'
🔁M. Zukowskiout: R. Tachie
90+2'

Match stats — 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

36%Possession64%
10Shots14
2On target2
3Corners3
0.83xG2.11

Goals against chances

1. FC Magdeburg2 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth
Holstein Kiel0 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MullerD
  • 3A. Garcia MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 38L. HyrylainenM
  • 10M. KwartengM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ZukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 4E. DzogovicD
  • 11F. ChavezM
  • 33L. MergnerM
  • 26T. MuselM
  • 9R. SimicF
  • 29R. TachieF
  • 35M. BaarsF
Coach: Petrik Sander
Holstein Kiel 4-3-2-1
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 13I. NekicD
  • 26D. ZecD
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 20A. KapralikM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 41L. RothenhagenG
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 3N. TakahashiD
  • 40L. ParduziD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 30T. TasdelenM
  • 48H. MuqajM
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 11G. de RegtF
Coach: Tim Walter

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

1. FC Magdeburg

  • W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026

Holstein Kiel

  • D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
61. FC Magdeburg6312119+210
16Holstein Kiel6042710-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

  • 9 May 2026Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 13 December 20251. FC Magdeburg 3–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 2 February 2024FC Magdeburg 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 1 November 2023Holstein Kiel 3–3 FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal
  • 20 August 2023Holstein Kiel 2–4 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 11 February 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel

1. FC Magdeburg

  • E. Iyoha4 goals
  • A. Nollenberger3 goals1 assist

Holstein Kiel

  • P. Harres4 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.