1. FC Magdeburg
vs
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 40% 1. FC Magdeburg, 26% draw, 34% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47, Holstein Kiel 1.34.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
1. FC Magdeburg
- W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
- L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026
Holstein Kiel
- D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
1. FC Magdeburg
No league goals recorded yet.
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres2 goals2 assists
- J. Therkelsen1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Magdeburg carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.78 for Holstein Kiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): 1. FC Magdeburg L-W; Holstein Kiel D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.34 for Holstein Kiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.82 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Holstein Kiel rate 0.82 and 0.95.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Magdeburg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.34 for Holstein Kiel. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.95 for Holstein Kiel.