Orense SC
vs
Delfin SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Orense SC 1–0 Delfin SC
The model makes it 46% Orense SC, 28% draw, 26% Delfin SC — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Orense SC 1.54, Delfin SC 1.05.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Orense SC are 13th on 34 points from 32 games; Delfin SC are 15th on 32 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Orense SC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Delfin SC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Mushuc Runa SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Orense SC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Delfin SC 1–1 Orense SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orense SC vs Delfin SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orense SC at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orense SC vs Delfin SC
Orense SC
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Manta FC21 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad Catolica Quito15 September 2026
- W4-3Guayaquil City FC8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leones del Norte3 September 2026
Delfin SC
- W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tecnico Universitario20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC13 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica Quito6 September 2026
- W1-0Tecnico Universitario1 September 2026
What these results say
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Delfin SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Delfin SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Delfin SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 34 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Orense SC
Chance to win the league · 9% today
Delfin SC
Chance to win the league · 2% today
From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Delfin SC
- 9 August 2026Delfin SC 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 19 April 2026Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 26 August 2025Orense SC 3–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 4 May 2025Delfin SC 0–0 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 1 November 2024Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 12 May 2024Delfin SC 0–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Orense SC and Delfin SC
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera82
Delfin SC
GoalsAssists
- F. Ayunta81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orense SC carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.31 for Delfin SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Orense SC and 1.05 for Delfin SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orense SC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Delfin SC rate 0.49 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orense SC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Orense SC against 1.05 for Delfin SC. Orense SC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.48 for Delfin SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orense SC at home · Delfin SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Orense SC 31, Delfin SC 32.
Orense SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Delfin SC have let in 4 there.
Delfin SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Orense SC have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Orense SC
- vs Tecnico Universitario1 Nov · Liga Prowin 50%
- at Deportivo Cuenca8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Mushuc Runa SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Delfin SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
Delfin SC
- vs Deportivo Cuenca1 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Mushuc Runa SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Manta FC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Orense SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.