Dynamo Dresden
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 54% Dynamo Dresden, 22% draw, 24% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 2.15, SV Darmstadt 98 1.41.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dynamo Dresden
- L0-3away to 1. FC Nürnberg9 August 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
- D2-2Holstein Kiel8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dynamo Dresden
No league goals recorded yet.
SV Darmstadt 98
- Lee Ho-Jae1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.86 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dynamo Dresden L; SV Darmstadt 98 D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.41 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.99 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 1.16 and 1.15.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SV Darmstadt 98, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.41 for SV Darmstadt 98. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.15 for SV Darmstadt 98.