Nantes
vs
Nancy
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 64% Nantes, 23% draw, 13% Nancy — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Nantes 1.78, Nancy 0.66.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Nantes
- L2-5Rodez22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Laval14 August 2026
- L0-1RED Star FC 938 August 2026
Nancy
- W1-0away to PAU21 August 2026
- L0-1Montpellier14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Boulogne8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nantes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Nancy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Nantes
- K. Corredor2 goals
Nancy
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nantes carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.54 for Nancy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Nantes L-L-L; Nancy D-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Nantes and 0.66 for Nancy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nantes rate 0.96 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nancy rate 0.45 and 0.98.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nancy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nantes against 0.66 for Nancy. Nantes's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/0.98 for Nancy.