Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Pohang Steelers
The model makes it 46% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 27% draw, 27% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62, Pohang Steelers 1.10.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Ulsan Hyundai FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 47 points from 31 games; Pohang Steelers are 9th on 40 points from 31 games — K League 1.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Gwangju FC.
- Pohang Steelers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Incheon United.
- Last 6 meetings: Pohang Steelers 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Pohang Steelers 0–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L3-4away to Gwangju FC11 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
Pohang Steelers
- L0-3away to Incheon United9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Seoul20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen12 September 2026
- D0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Jeonbuk Motors5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pohang Steelers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pohang Steelers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 47 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 90% today
From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers
- 8 August 2026Pohang Steelers 0–2 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 2 May 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 13 September 2025Pohang Steelers 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 5 May 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 29 March 2025Pohang Steelers 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 30 November 2024Pohang Steelers 3–1 Ulsan Hyundai FCFA Cup
Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers
Ulsan Hyundai FC
GoalsAssists
- Yago Cariello91
- Lee Dong-Gyeong76
Pohang Steelers
GoalsAssists
- Lee Ho-Jae40
- J. Tranziska32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.35 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.10 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.78 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.53 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.10 for Pohang Steelers. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.47 for Pohang Steelers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home · Pohang Steelers away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Ulsan Hyundai FC 31, Pohang Steelers 31.
Ulsan Hyundai FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Pohang Steelers have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ulsan Hyundai FC
No further matches on our board yet.
Pohang Steelers
- at Kashima28 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 13%
- vs Gamba Osaka4 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- at Kyoto Sanga24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.