De Graafschap
vs
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht
The model makes it 42% De Graafschap, 28% draw, 30% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.68, Jong Utrecht 1.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- De Graafschap are 18th on 7 points from 8 games; Jong Utrecht are 19th on 7 points from 9 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Den Bosch.
- Jong Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to VVV Venlo.
- Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended De Graafschap 1–0 Jong Utrecht.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts De Graafschap at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
De Graafschap
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Heracles4 September 2026
- L1-4Almere City FC29 August 2026
Jong Utrecht
- L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
- W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
- W3-2away to NAC Breda11 September 2026
- D0-0FC Eindhoven7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jong AZ31 August 2026
What these results say
- De Graafschap scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
- Jong Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 7 |
| 19 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
- 20 February 2026De Graafschap 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 8 December 2025Jong Utrecht 2–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 20 January 2025Jong Utrecht 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 23 August 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 3 May 2024De Graafschap 2–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2023Jong Utrecht 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht
De Graafschap
- J. Kania4 goals
Jong Utrecht
- E. C. Owen5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
De Graafschap carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.24 for Jong Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for De Graafschap and 1.23 for Jong Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
De Graafschap rate 0.55 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong Utrecht rate 0.55 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives De Graafschap a 0.1% chance of the title and Jong Utrecht 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for De Graafschap against 1.23 for Jong Utrecht. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.88 for Jong Utrecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
De Graafschap at home · Jong Utrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: De Graafschap 8, Jong Utrecht 9.
De Graafschap score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
De Graafschap
- at Jong Ajax19 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs Waalwijk23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at FC Volendam30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- at Vitesse8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
Jong Utrecht
- vs Roda19 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at FC Volendam23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Dordrecht2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at Den Bosch7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- vs Emmen20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.