Dordrecht
vs
Emmen
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Dordrecht 2–1 Emmen
The model makes it 38% Dordrecht, 28% draw, 34% Emmen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.63, Emmen 1.49.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dordrecht are 17th on 7 points from 8 games; Emmen are 6th on 15 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Dordrecht have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Almere City FC.
- Emmen have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC OSS.
- Last 6 meetings: Dordrecht 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Dordrecht 1–0 Emmen.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dordrecht vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dordrecht at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dordrecht vs Emmen
Dordrecht
- W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Eindhoven11 September 2026
- L3-6Jong AZ5 September 2026
- L1-6away to FC Volendam28 August 2026
Emmen
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
- W5-3FC Volendam4 September 2026
- L0-4away to VVV Venlo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Dordrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dordrecht had three goals or more.
- Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Emmen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Emmen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Emmen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 |
| 6 | Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Emmen
- 13 February 2026Dordrecht 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 19 September 2025Emmen 2–0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 28 February 2025Dordrecht 3–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 9 August 2024Emmen 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 18 May 2024Dordrecht 0–1 EmmenEredivisie
- 14 May 2024Emmen 2–2 DordrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Emmen
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Emmen
- F. Quispel6 goals
- J. Cooper5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dordrecht carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.24 for Emmen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Dordrecht and 1.49 for Emmen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dordrecht rate 0.50 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emmen rate 0.59 and 2.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Emmen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and Emmen 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dordrecht the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dordrecht against 1.49 for Emmen. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2 for Emmen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dordrecht at home · Emmen away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Dordrecht 8, Emmen 8.
Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Emmen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dordrecht
- at Jong PSV U2119 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs VVV Venlo24 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Jong Utrecht2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs NAC Breda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Emmen
- vs Almere City FC17 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Vitesse23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs Den Bosch30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.